China’s holiday baijiu sales fell during a crucial festival season

China’s liquor market came out of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday period with weak baijiu sales and only a modest rebound in related stocks, according to broker research and channel checks cited by Chinese financial media.

The two holidays, often referred to in China as the “double festival” period, are a key sales season for alcohol makers because they usually lift gift purchases, family gatherings, and banquet demand. This year, however, brokers and distributors said the expected pickup in baijiu, the country’s dominant distilled spirit, did not materialize. Analysts now say the industry is moving deeper into a period of structural divergence, with top brands holding up better than weaker players and overall demand still searching for a floor.

In the first two trading days after the holiday, the broader A-share market was volatile, but liquor stocks were relatively steady. As of the Oct. 9 close, the Wind baijiu index had risen 0.25% for the week, extending a mild rebound seen before the holiday. Most baijiu stocks moved less than 1%, pointing to cautious trading rather than a strong shift in sentiment.

Among individual names, Hong Kong-listed ZJLD Group, better known as Zhenjiu Li Du, was one of the stronger performers, rising 5.53% for the week. Outside baijiu, the performance was more uneven but in some cases stronger. Changyu A, a leading domestic wine producer, rose 13.67%. Regional beer maker Huiquan Beer climbed 12.86%, helping lift other brewers including Zhujiang Beer, Yanjing Beer, and Tsingtao Brewery, each of which posted gains of more than 2%.

Yellow wine, which had been one of the strongest pre-holiday trades, showed a clear split after the break. Kuaijishan rose 7.99% for the week, while Guyuelongshan and Jinfeng Winery both fell. Broker channel checks said yellow wine sales were relatively stable during the holiday period, although gift demand weakened from a year earlier. For Kuaijishan, new distributor recruitment for its Lanting product line was cited as an important source of growth, while repeat purchases in its core Shaoxing market continued to improve.

Beer demand was also soft in volume terms. According to channel feedback cited in the report, overall beer sales during the holiday period are expected to have declined by more than 5% from a year earlier. Lower-priced products, especially those under 8 yuan, saw the sharpest pressure and weighed on the category. At the same time, brokers said the product mix and average revenue per ton remained relatively healthy, with instant retail channels and newer products aimed at narrower consumption segments posting better growth.

Baijiu demand was weaker than many investors had hoped. Unlike beer and yellow wine, baijiu depends more heavily on gifting and banquet occasions during major holidays. But distributors and analysts said they did not see a clear acceleration during the National Day break, and sales trends were broadly similar to those seen around the Mid-Autumn Festival. The result, according to several broker estimates, is that baijiu sales during the combined holiday season likely fell year over year.

Huachuang Securities, citing channel checks, said Kweichow Moutai remained the most resilient among the top-tier brands. Some channels received October shipments of Feitian Moutai during the holiday, and the wholesale price held near 1,730 yuan per bottle. Inventory in those channels remained low, and the brokerage said price, sell-through, bottle opening rates, and distributor margins were all still in relatively healthy shape.

The picture was less firm for other major brands. Huachuang said Wuliangye’s core Puwu product held a wholesale price of about 770 yuan, with acceptable turnover and reasonable distributor inventory, but channel profits remained weak and confidence had not fully recovered. For Luzhou Laojiao’s high-end Guojiao 1573, the firm said price discipline was being used to support payment collection, with overall payment progress at roughly 70%. Wholesale prices for the high-proof version slipped slightly to a range of 810 yuan to 820 yuan, while inventory digestion and turnover pressure remained concerns.

Channel feedback from Henan province pointed to a mixed but not distressed environment. Full-year payment collection for Feitian Moutai was said to be around 80%. Moutai’s lower-tier product lines were also moving relatively smoothly, and regional inventory had fallen to just over one month. In some areas, Moutai 1935 was temporarily out of stock. Other baijiu companies, including Fenjiu, Jinshiyuan, and Yingjia Gongjiu, were described as prioritizing inventory control, with payment collection either flat or slightly slower than a year earlier.

In Jiangsu, channel sources said Jinshiyuan’s payment collection progress was about 70%, in line with the same period last year, with an end-of-October target of 95%. Yingjia Gongjiu’s progress was also about 70%, slightly below last year, though inventory levels were still viewed as healthy.

Guotai Haitong Securities said one reason the post-holiday outlook has not worsened sharply is that producers did not engage in obvious forced stocking during the peak season. Because distributors were not pushed to absorb large volumes of inventory ahead of the holiday, the firm said channel inventories remain broadly manageable. That, in turn, could help keep wholesale prices relatively stable after the holiday. The next major demand test, according to the brokerage, will come during the October-November “Double 11” online shopping promotions.

The same brokerage said the baijiu market is increasingly being driven by real end-user demand rather than shipment targets imposed by producers. It said major brands are no longer pressing distributors as aggressively on task volumes, and distributor funding conditions have not deteriorated in a major way. Relations between producers and channels, it said, are gradually easing as both sides focus more on building local markets, lifting actual sales, and raising bottle-opening rates instead of pushing inventory through the system.

Zhongtai Securities offered a more cautious demand assessment. It said baijiu consumption has become more rational, with consumers less willing to stockpile and more likely to buy only when needed. In that environment, the holiday market has taken on what the firm described as a “dumbbell” structure, with stronger demand at the high and low ends and weaker performance in the middle. Zhongtai expects the baijiu sector to show clear structural divergence in the third quarter of 2026, with the industry as a whole accelerating its search for a bottom as third-quarter earnings season approaches.