JPMorgan Cuts Molson Coors Forecast Ahead of Earnings

Molson Coors Beverage is heading into its first-quarter report on Thursday with Wall Street expecting weaker results in the Americas and a softer outlook for the year, after JPMorgan cut its earnings forecast and trimmed its price target on the beer maker.

The bank now expects Molson Coors to report adjusted earnings of 36 cents a share for the quarter, down from an earlier estimate of 40 cents. That is still slightly above the 35 cents a share consensus estimate, but it reflects lower revenue and margin assumptions in the company’s North American business, according to the note from analyst Drew Levine.

Levine kept a Neutral rating on the stock but lowered his price target to $43 from $45. Shares of Molson Coors, which trades under the ticker TAP on the New York Stock Exchange, were at $42.57 on Monday afternoon, near recent lows.

The revised forecast points to continued pressure on volume. JPMorgan now expects beer volume to fall 3.8% in the quarter, worse than its prior estimate of a 3.4% decline and deeper than the broader market expectation of a 2.3% drop. The firm also sees gross margin shrinking by 234 basis points from a year earlier to 33.8%, below the 34.8% consensus.

At the same time, Levine raised his estimate for constant-currency sales growth to 1.5% from a previous forecast of a 0.9% decline, citing stronger expectations in Molson Coors’ Europe, Middle East and Africa business and in Asia-Pacific. But he cut total sales growth expectations to 0.8% from 1.4%, suggesting that currency effects and weaker U.S. performance are still weighing on the company’s overall results.

For full-year 2026, JPMorgan lowered its earnings estimate to $4.65 a share from $4.71, implying a 14% decline from last year. It also reduced its 2027 forecast to $4.75 a share from $5, which would represent 1.9% growth instead of the 6.1% increase it had previously expected.

Levine said the setup for spring and summer could still help Molson Coors if weather improves and events such as the World Cup and America 250 support demand. But he also said market share trends have been weak and pricing remains difficult, even as the company’s acquisition of Atomic Brands could add revenue this year.

The report comes as beer companies face a mixed consumer environment in the U.S., where volume trends have been uneven and competition for shelf space remains intense. For Molson Coors, investors will be watching whether management can show signs that demand is stabilizing in its core markets or whether margin pressure is likely to continue into the warmer months when beer sales usually improve.