Bordeaux Sees Signs of Recovery Before Futures Campaign

On the eve of Bordeaux’s en primeur tastings, signs are emerging that the fine wine market may be stabilizing after a long stretch of weakness, even as tariffs, war-related costs and volatile exchange rates continue to weigh on trade. The shift matters because it could shape how châteaux price the 2025 vintage and whether buyers return to the futures market in meaningful numbers.

Colin Hay, writing for The Drinks Business, said market conditions remain difficult but are no longer simply bad. He argued that they have become “complicated,” which in his view is a better place for Bordeaux than the deep slump that defined much of the past year. His case rests in part on recent Liv-ex data showing that, for the first time in three years, the bid-to-offer ratio has moved above 1. In practical terms, that means demand is now exceeding supply in parts of the secondary market.

That does not automatically translate into a strong en primeur campaign. Liv-ex tracks secondary-market trading, while en primeur is a primary-market system in which buyers commit to wines before bottling and delivery. Still, Hay said the two markets have become more closely linked because négociants in Bordeaux have spent recent years buying discounted back vintages rather than taking on fresh allocations at prices they considered too high. If secondary-market stock is clearing and demand is improving there, he said, that could pull attention back toward new releases.

The timing is important. Bordeaux’s futures campaign opens as global trade remains unsettled by President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, which have already dampened demand and created uncertainty over what import costs might look like by the time en primeur wines are delivered two years from now. Because tariffs are not paid at purchase but at delivery, buyers face a moving target. That uncertainty could encourage some collectors to buy now if they believe trade barriers may ease later. It could also keep others away if they fear higher costs or currency losses.

Hay also pointed to the broader geopolitical backdrop as a drag on consumption. Conflict in the Gulf has pushed up borrowing costs and other expenses, he wrote, leaving consumers and businesses with less room to spend. Yet even in that environment, he said, fine wine sentiment appears to have improved recently.

For Bordeaux producers, that improvement may not be enough on its own. Many châteaux are under financial pressure after several weak campaigns and rising production costs. Some have already been put up for sale. Their dependence on en primeur has become more fragile as négociants have refused allocations when release prices looked out of line with market reality.

That leaves producers with limited options. Wealthier estates can try to reduce supply and release fewer bottles at prices that protect their standing in the secondary market. Others may need to cut prices sharply just to move enough wine to support cash flow for another year. Hay said some properties may end up releasing below production cost if they want to secure sales in a low-yield vintage.

Courtiers, who help coordinate the campaign and earn commissions on transactions, also have an interest in making sure the system works. Their role this year may be especially important because they must balance the needs of châteaux seeking revenue with négociants looking for value and protection against further losses on older stock.

The négociants themselves now hold much less risk than they once did. Hay said many of them have shifted toward selling physical stock bought cheaply on the secondary market, which makes them less dependent on en primeur than before. That change gives them more room to accept bullish pricing on new releases if those prices do not undercut existing stock too sharply.

What emerges from all of this is a market that is still fragile but no longer frozen. If Bordeaux wants the 2025 campaign to succeed, Hay argued, release prices will need to come down enough to tempt buyers back while still protecting the long-term value of the wines already in circulation. He suggested reductions of about 5% to 10% in euros from 2024 levels would be a credible starting point, especially if paired with tighter supply and coordinated pricing from top estates.

The stakes are high because this campaign will test whether en primeur still has a central role in Bordeaux’s business model or whether it continues to lose ground to a market that now demands lower prices, less risk and clearer value before it commits money two years ahead of delivery.