Seville rail shutdown could cost the province €95 million by year’s end

A report released Thursday, November 5 by the Chamber of Commerce of Seville said the suspension of high-speed rail service between Madrid and Seville could cost the province between 278,270 and 299,675 overnight stays by December 31 if the disruption continues through the end of the year.

The study, prepared by consulting firm Merkadhok for the chamber, examined the effects of the shutdown of the AVE link after the October 28 rail crash near Urda, Toledo. The line is a main route for tourists, business travelers and convention visitors arriving in Seville, a city whose hotels, restaurants and tourism businesses depend heavily on traffic from Madrid.

According to the report, the direct economic hit to the province is running between €1.38 million and €1.48 million a day in November. In December, the study puts the daily loss between €1.26 million and €1.34 million. The chamber said the total direct damage could reach as much as €95 million if the line is not fully restored by the end of December.

The report said more than 6,300 people a day who would normally arrive in Seville by train are no longer doing so. It said airlines have added about 1,218 seats a day, while buses and private vehicles account for roughly 1,430 and 1,100 travelers a day, respectively. Even with those alternatives, the study said, replacement capacity falls well short of normal high-speed rail demand.

The projected losses in overnight stays are estimates under different scenarios, not a count of cancellations that have already occurred. The model assumes varying lengths for the service interruption and varying levels of substitution by air and road travel. It does not publish a like-for-like year-over-year comparison of realized losses.

The chamber said the figures are based on direct spending by travelers who cannot make the trip. The study uses an estimate of €87 a night per person for food, leisure and shopping, hotel and tourist apartment spending of €113 per room in November and €107 in December, and €15 per trip in nearby station spending for passengers who would not stay overnight.

That means the projected economic damage goes beyond hotels and restaurants alone. The chamber’s estimate also includes retail, entertainment and other local consumption. The study notes that its baseline data come from 2025 and were not updated for inflation, a limitation that could affect the final totals.

Francisco Herrero, president of the Chamber of Commerce of Seville, said the city needed the connection restored as quickly as possible because of its weight in the local economy. The chamber presented the report alongside business groups representing tourism, hotels and restaurants, as well as the city government.

Hotel operators said the first impact was being felt in short-term reservations and in the cancellation of events. Jorge Castilla, who heads the hotel association for Seville and its province, said the sector was also worried about reputational damage and about weaker bookings in January and February, when demand is usually lower. He said hotels in Seville had been running at about 75% occupancy on average, making any sustained drop in reservations significant for the winter season.

Tourism businesses also said the effects were spreading beyond leisure travel. Jorge Robles, president of the Seville tourism business association ASET, said Madrid is a key source market for premium travelers and convention traffic. He said some businesses were reporting an average impact of about 20%, with sharper losses among companies tied to conventions and organized events.

Restaurant owners warned that Seville has few practical substitutes for the rail corridor with Madrid. Alfonso Maceda, who leads the local hospitality association, said the city was entering a period with important travel dates and that the loss of visitors would be felt in sales and employment if the disruption lasted.

Municipal officials used the report to press for a faster response from the national government. Juan Bueno, spokesperson for Seville’s city government, said the break in the rail link had badly damaged a connection that the city needs to support business activity, tourism and trade.

The report does not attempt to measure wider indirect effects such as job losses among suppliers, lower tax revenue or the longer-term impact of canceled fairs and congresses. The chamber said those factors could push the overall damage above the direct losses it calculated.

Seville’s chamber framed the study as a snapshot of immediate risk while the rail shutdown continues. It said the province’s exposure is especially high because the capital concentrates much of the area’s hotel, tourism and convention activity, and because the Madrid route is one of its main gateways for high-spending domestic visitors.