Australian wine exports hit a 20-year volume low after U.S. shipments fell 22%

Australian wine exports fell in the 12 months through September, with a sharp drop in shipments to the United States outweighing gains in Southeast Asia and Canada, according to new figures released Wednesday by Wine Australia.

Wine Australia said export value declined by 7% from a year earlier to A$2.25 billion, while export volume fell by 5% to 590 million liters. It said that was the lowest annual export volume since 2004.

The industry body said the U.S. was the main drag on volume. Shipments to the American market fell by 22%, or 27 million liters, in the year through September. Export value to the U.S. dropped even more sharply, down 28% to A$219 million, while volume fell to 93 million liters.

The weaker U.S. performance was large enough to offset what Wine Australia described as solid volume growth in mainland China, Canada, New Zealand and Japan. By value, the biggest negative contributors were mainland China, the U.S., Hong Kong and the United Kingdom, though those declines were partly balanced by stronger sales to Canada, New Zealand and Southeast Asia.

The figures matter beyond wine exporters because they show how demand is shifting across major beverage markets. For producers, distributors and retailers in wine and other alcohol categories, the data suggests trade policy, pricing pressure and changing drinking habits are reshaping where growth can still be found and where margins are likely to come under more strain.

Southeast Asia was the strongest source of export value growth for Australian wine over the period. Wine Australia said exports to the region rose 16% to A$291 million, enough for Southeast Asia to move ahead of the U.S. in value terms. The region still accounts for only 4% of Australia’s wine export volume, which means the increase has not yet had a large effect on total shipment volumes, but it has become more important for higher-value sales.

Thailand led that regional growth. Exports there jumped 57% to a record A$73 million in the 12 months through September. Wine Australia said tax and policy changes, stronger interest in wine and Australia’s established position in the market helped support the increase. It also reported export growth to Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

Canada was the biggest driver of combined volume and value growth. Wine Australia said exports to Canada rose 12% in value to A$185 million and 14% in volume to 70 million liters. The group said Australia has picked up market share as American wines have been removed from store shelves during the continuing Canada-U.S. trade dispute.

Even so, Wine Australia said the pace of growth in Canada began to slow in the most recent six months. It added that export volumes in the June and September quarters still remained above the same periods a year earlier.

Canadian demand was led by still red wine, especially Cabernet Sauvignon. According to Wine Australia, still red exports to Canada rose 15% in value over the year. Still white exports rose 8% in value and rosé climbed 21%. Growth was spread across price levels, with wine exported at below A$5 a liter up 14% in volume and wine averaging A$5 a liter or more up 15%, suggesting opportunities at both mass-market and more premium ends of the trade.

Mainland China remained Australia’s largest premium market, though the market lost value over the latest 12-month period. Wine Australia said exports to mainland China fell 10% in value to A$759 million, while volume increased 8% to 79 million liters. It said shipment levels now appear to be stabilizing after two volatile years following the removal of tariffs on Australian bottled wine in March 2024.

The average export value to mainland China was A$9.57 a liter, underlining the market’s importance for premium sales. Still, Wine Australia said the outlook remains uncertain because of economic headwinds and changing wine consumption patterns.

The U.S. market presented the broadest set of problems. Wine Australia said the recent quarterly numbers were closer to the previous year’s levels, but the overall fall in export value across the full 12 months was severe and comparable to declines last seen during the global financial crisis.

Part of that pressure came from new tariffs on imported wine in the U.S. Citing Trade Data Monitor, Wine Australia said the import value of wine entering the U.S. from all source countries fell 20% in the 12 months through August 2026, while import volume fell 13%. The group noted that tariffs tend to affect value more directly than volume because producers and importers adjust prices in response.

Wine Australia also pointed to deeper structural issues in the American market. It said older consumers, traditionally core wine drinkers, are reducing alcohol consumption as they age, while younger adults are drinking less each time they consume alcohol than earlier generations did at the same age. It cited analysis of National Survey on Drug Use and Health data by bw166 showing that Americans ages 21 to 29 now drink 30% less per occasion than that age group did in the early 2000s.

Market data cited by Wine Australia showed the U.S. wine market contracted for a fifth straight year in 2025. According to Impact Databank, the market fell 2.5%, or by more than 8 million cases. Wine produced in the U.S. still holds a 69% share of the domestic wine market, according to the bulletin, and that matters for imported wine because weak consumption has contributed to excess local supply. Wine Australia said reports from the U.S. industry indicated that 50% of this year’s grape crush was uncontracted, compared with a more typical 20% to 30%, making the market even more competitive for foreign suppliers.

In the U.K., conditions were difficult but less severe than in the U.S. Wine Australia said exports to Britain fell 3% in value to A$327 million and 2% in volume to 187 million liters. It said those results broadly matched wider category trends in the market. Citing Circana, Wine Australia said total off-premise wine sales in the U.K. fell 1% in value and 3% in volume in the 12 months through September 2026.

The U.K. numbers also showed different performance by style. Wine Australia said still red wine accounted for most of the decline in Australian exports to Britain, falling 4% in both volume and value. That aligned with broader weakness in U.K. red wine sales, where off-premise volume fell 8% over the same period. By contrast, rosé remained the strongest part of the British market. Wine Australia said total U.K. off-premise rosé sales rose 4% in volume and 7% in value, while Australian rosé exports to the market increased 27% in volume.

Taken together, the latest data points to a wine export map that is becoming less centered on a few traditional destinations. The U.S. remains a major market for volume, and China remains central for premium pricing, but the strongest momentum is coming from places where policy shifts, distribution changes or consumer trends are opening space for Australian suppliers. For beverage companies more broadly, that may mean a greater need to diversify market exposure and product mix as trade disputes, tariffs and weaker alcohol consumption in mature markets continue to affect demand.