Global Wine Production Hits 63-Year Low as 2025 Harvests Fall Short Across Major Regions

Wine producers across the Northern Hemisphere are facing a challenging year as recent forecasts show that none of the major 2025 winegrape harvests will reach their five-year averages. Italy, one of the world’s largest wine producers, has downgraded its expected crush size for 2025. This adjustment follows similar trends in other key regions, with at least three major harvests now projected to fall well below normal levels. The shortfall is attributed to a combination of adverse weather conditions, vineyard removals, and the mothballing of some vineyards.

The International Organisation of Vine & Wine reported that 2024 saw the lowest global wine production since 1961. With the current outlook for 2025, there is growing concern that this year’s output could be even lower. Despite these supply issues, bulk wine buyers have not rushed to secure contracts or increase purchases. Instead, many are taking a cautious approach, monitoring the market rather than reacting quickly to news of smaller harvests.

Industry analysts point to weak demand at retail as a key factor behind this hesitation. In both Europe and North America, wine sales continue to decline. Suppliers have tried to raise prices in response to the smaller crops, hoping to return to pricing levels seen during previous short vintages. However, the current market conditions do not support such increases. Short crops no longer drive demand as they once did, and buyers remain wary of overcommitting in a slow market.

New Zealand Winegrowers recently released its annual report for 2025, highlighting concerns shared by producers worldwide. The report notes that the global economy remains sluggish and that wine markets in key export destinations are weak. New regulatory measures, including new tariffs in the United States and increased taxes in the United Kingdom, have added further pressure on exporters. As a result, many wineries are holding more inventory than they would like.

Despite these challenges, there are some positive trends within the industry. The New Zealand report points out that lighter and more refreshing wine styles are performing better than the overall category. This shift is not limited to New Zealand; demand for white wines and lower-alcohol options is growing in several markets. Notably, China—a country traditionally focused on red wines—has seen an uptick in requests for white wines from various producer countries.

The current situation presents both risks and opportunities for buyers and sellers in the global wine trade. While supply is tight due to reduced harvests, weak demand means that prices have not surged as they might have in previous years with similar shortages. Some suppliers are offering attractive deals on wines originally intended for bottling but now available in bulk.

As harvests wrap up across Europe and North America, industry participants are watching closely to see how market dynamics will evolve through the end of the year and into 2026. The balance between supply constraints and tepid demand will likely shape pricing and trading activity in the months ahead. For now, both buyers and sellers appear content to wait and see how these factors play out before making significant moves in the market.