European Buyers Drive 36% Surge in Fine Wine Purchases as Liv-ex Indices Rebound

The fine wine market is showing signs of renewed strength, according to the latest data from Liv-ex, the global marketplace for fine wine. In September, key Liv-ex indices posted their strongest gains since 2022, signaling a possible shift in market sentiment after a prolonged period of price corrections and uncertainty.

Liv-ex’s Fine Wine 50, 100, and 1000 indices all recorded notable increases, with the Liv-ex 1000 rising for the first time since March 2023. Out of its 1,000 components, 589 either held steady or increased in price. The Liv-ex 100 index, which tracks the prices of the most sought-after wines on the secondary market, rose by 1.1%. Its bid:offer ratio—a key indicator of market confidence—climbed to 0.70, the highest level since April 2023. This ratio measures the balance between buyers’ bids and sellers’ offers; when it rises, it often signals that prices are likely to follow.

A statistical model used by Liv-ex analysts predicts only a minimal decline of 0.6% in the Liv-ex 100 over the next two months, suggesting that the market may be stabilizing after more than a year of downward pressure. The Champagne 50 index also showed signs of stability, with its bid:offer ratio at 0.51.

European buyers played a significant role in this renewed momentum. In September, they accounted for 39.5% of all Liv-ex trade—their highest share since August 2022—and increased their purchases by 36% compared to the previous month. This surge helped push overall trade value up by 9.5%, trade count by 4.2%, and trade volume by 6.4%, bringing activity back to levels seen before recent tariff changes.

Romain Grudzinski, Head of European Markets at Liv-ex, commented that the market is beginning to show signs of stabilization following a period of sustained price correction. He noted that while there is still destocking of recent vintages and unsold en primeur stock remains an issue, Bordeaux indices are improving and bid-offer ratios are moving in a positive direction.

Among the top-traded wines by value in September were Chateau Lafite Rothschild Premier Cru Classe Pauillac 2020, Sassicaia Tenuta San Guido Bolgheri from several vintages, Solaia Toscana 2021, and Opus One Napa Valley 2021. Champagne demand remained strong as well, accounting for 16% of September’s trade on Liv-ex, with over £2 million worth of bids live on the platform.

By volume, Piper Heidsieck Rare Luminous 2013 led trading, followed by Dominio de Pingus Psi Ribera del Duero DO 2022 and Antinori Cervaro della Sala Umbria 2023. Italian wines such as Tignanello Toscana and Bibi Graetz Testamatta Rosso also featured prominently.

The bid:offer ratio is closely watched by market participants as it often precedes changes in price trends. When the ratio rises above certain thresholds—such as 1.0 for the Liv-ex 100—it typically predicts future price stability or increases. Conversely, a falling ratio can signal that sellers may soon need to lower prices to attract buyers.

Recent analysis by Liv-ex data analyst Alexander Chisholm found that for the Liv-ex 100 index, a bid:offer ratio of 1.0 predicts future stability, while a ratio above that level forecasts price increases over the following two months. The current reading of 0.7 suggests only minor declines ahead, a marked improvement from previous months.

While most other indices still predict slight declines based on their current bid:offer ratios, these are minimal compared to the volatility seen over the past three years. The overall trend points to a more balanced market, with supply and demand converging for many of the world’s most sought-after wines.

Market participants are watching these developments closely as they consider their next moves in the secondary wine market. With European buyers driving demand and key indicators turning positive, there is cautious optimism that fine wine may be entering a new phase of stability and growth after a challenging period.