South Africa Posts Strong Wine Recovery After Two Challenging Vintages

The International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) released its first estimates for global wine production in 2025, projecting a total output between 228 and 235 million hectoliters. The mid-range estimate stands at 232 million hectoliters, which represents a 3% increase compared to the historically low harvest recorded in 2024. Despite this modest recovery, the figure remains about 7% below the average production of the past five years.

The OIV’s report highlights ongoing challenges for wine producers worldwide. The Southern Hemisphere, where the grape harvest is completed in the first half of the year, is expected to see a slight rebound in production. Preliminary data suggest that total output from this region will reach approximately 49 million hectoliters in 2025. This marks a 7% increase over last year’s figures but still falls short of the five-year average by about 5%. The organization attributes these results to persistent adverse weather conditions, including heatwaves, droughts, and irregular rainfall patterns that have affected several major wine-producing countries.

Production trends across Southern Hemisphere countries are uneven. Some nations are beginning to recover from recent declines, while others continue to face reduced yields due to ongoing climatic challenges. The Southern Hemisphere is projected to contribute around 21% of global wine production in 2025, maintaining a share consistent with trends observed over the past decade.

South Africa stands out among Southern Hemisphere producers with a notable recovery. The country’s wine production is forecasted at approximately 8.8 million hectoliters for 2025, an increase of 16% compared to last year. This brings South Africa’s output close to its five-year average and signals a full recovery after two consecutive vintages were hampered by unfavorable weather. According to the OIV, the improvement is largely due to mild and predominantly dry conditions during the growing season across most wine regions. These conditions supported healthy vine development and better yields, while limited disease pressure further contributed to the positive outcome. Both coastal and inland areas reported favorable ripening, which helped boost overall production.

The OIV’s early estimates provide an important snapshot of global wine supply as producers continue to adapt to changing climate patterns and market demands. While some regions are showing signs of recovery, others remain vulnerable to environmental pressures that can impact both yield and quality. The organization will release updated figures later in the year as more data become available from ongoing harvests in the Northern Hemisphere and final reports from Southern Hemisphere producers.