Fine wine market shows signs of recovery after prolonged downturn as prices near potential bottom

The fine wine market, after enduring its longest downturn in decades, may be approaching a turning point, according to the latest Market Intel Report from Liv-ex, released in August 2025. The report analyzes current market conditions and compares them with previous downturns, raising the possibility that prices could be close to bottoming out.

So far this year, the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 index has dropped 4.9%, bringing its total decline to 26.6% since reaching a peak in September 2022. This sustained drop is reminiscent of the downturn that followed the 2011 market correction, both in terms of its causes and duration. The report notes that while the fine wine market has faced significant challenges, there are signs that recovery could be on the horizon.

One factor supporting this outlook is the performance of global stock markets. Despite volatility earlier in the year, major stock indices have reached all-time highs. Historically, when equities perform well, some investors look to diversify into alternative assets such as fine wine. Even a small shift of capital from equities into wine could lead to a notable increase in demand for fine wine.

The report also examines the balance between supply and demand in the market. The current bid-to-offer ratio by value on the Liv-ex exchange stands at 0.15. For comparison, during the financial crisis of 2008, this ratio fell as low as 0.1. The current level suggests that the market is nearing conditions that could trigger a reset in the balance between buyers and sellers.

Sophia Gilmour, a market analyst at Liv-ex, commented on the situation by emphasizing the cyclical nature of the fine wine market. She noted that after three years of declining prices, it is easy to forget that markets eventually recover as prices reach levels attractive enough to draw buyers back in. Gilmour pointed out that trust will need to be rebuilt between sellers and buyers who have become more cautious during the downturn. However, she stressed that demand for fine wine is not fixed and can increase if prices become appealing enough.

Gilmour also observed that with each month of price declines, the market moves closer to levels where buyers are likely to return. She highlighted that most of the gains made during the COVID-19 pandemic have now been erased, suggesting there may not be much further for prices to fall.

The Liv-ex report provides data-driven insight into how current trends compare with past cycles and what might lie ahead for collectors, investors, and industry professionals. While uncertainty remains, especially regarding how quickly trust can be restored among participants, there is growing optimism that a recovery could begin if current trends continue and prices stabilize at attractive levels for buyers.

The fine wine trade will be watching closely over the coming months for signs of renewed activity and confidence as market participants assess whether this long period of decline is finally drawing to a close.