Australia Leads Southern Hemisphere Wine Recovery as Output Rebounds

The International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) released its first estimates for global wine production in 2025, projecting a total output between 228 and 235 million hectoliters. The mid-range estimate stands at 232 million hectoliters, which marks a 3% increase compared to the notably low harvest of 2024. Despite this improvement, the figure remains 7% below the average production of the past five years.

The OIV’s report highlights that the Southern Hemisphere, where the grape harvest is completed in the first half of the year, is expected to see a modest recovery in wine production. After three consecutive years of decline, total output from this region is forecast to reach approximately 49 million hectoliters. This represents a 7% rise over last year’s figures but still falls about 5% short of the five-year average. The organization attributes these ongoing challenges to adverse weather conditions, including heatwaves, droughts, and irregular rainfall patterns that have affected several key wine-producing areas.

Production levels across Southern Hemisphere countries are uneven. Some nations are showing signs of recovery, while others continue to experience reduced yields. In 2025, the Southern Hemisphere is projected to contribute around 21% of global wine output, a proportion consistent with trends observed over the past decade.

Australia is expected to lead wine production in the Southern Hemisphere this year, with an estimated output of about 11.6 million hectoliters. This figure is up by 11% compared to 2024 but remains 2% below Australia’s five-year average. New Zealand’s wine sector is also set for significant growth in 2025. The country’s production is forecast at 3.7 million hectoliters, which is a substantial 32% increase over last year and stands 15% above its five-year average. The sharp rise follows a difficult season in 2024 when spring frost during flowering led to lower yields. As a result, the upcoming harvest is expected to be New Zealand’s second largest on record.

The OIV’s early estimates provide an initial outlook for the global wine industry as it continues to navigate climate-related challenges and shifting production patterns. The organization will release updated figures as more data becomes available throughout the year.