U.S. Wine Production Edges Up but Remains Well Below Historical Norms

The International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) released its first estimates for global wine production in 2025, projecting a total output between 228 and 235 million hectoliters. The mid-range estimate stands at 232 million hectoliters, which is a 3% increase compared to the historically low harvest of 2024. However, this figure remains 7% below the average production of the past five years.

In the United States, which ranks as the world’s fourth-largest wine producer, production is expected to reach 21.7 million hectoliters in 2025. This represents a 3% increase from last year’s notably small harvest but is still 9% below the country’s five-year average. The rebound follows a difficult 2024 season, when a combination of market adjustments and reduced vineyard yields led to the smallest U.S. wine output in decades.

The OIV’s estimate for U.S. production is based on data from California, Washington, and Oregon, which together account for about 85 to 90 percent of the nation’s wine grape harvest. California, by far the largest wine-producing state, is forecast to see a moderate increase of around 4% in its wine output. In contrast, Washington is expected to experience a significant decline of about 21%. Oregon is projected to recover strongly with an estimated increase of roughly 30%, reflecting varied climatic conditions across the West Coast.

These regional differences highlight ongoing challenges for American wine producers. California’s moderate growth comes after several years marked by drought and wildfires that have affected yields and quality. Washington’s sharp decline is attributed to adverse weather during key growing periods, while Oregon’s recovery follows a difficult previous season impacted by frost and disease pressure.

The OIV notes that while global production is showing signs of recovery from last year’s lows, it remains well below recent historical averages. Factors such as climate variability, changing consumer demand, and economic pressures continue to influence vineyard management and harvest outcomes worldwide.

Industry analysts are watching closely as producers adapt to these challenges. In the U.S., growers are investing in new technologies and vineyard practices aimed at improving resilience against weather extremes and market fluctuations. The coming months will provide further clarity as more detailed harvest data becomes available and producers assess the quality of the 2025 vintage.

The OIV will release updated figures later in the year as more information is collected from major wine-producing regions around the world. For now, both global and U.S. wine industries are cautiously optimistic about a partial recovery in production after an exceptionally difficult year.