Fine Wine Market Shows Signs of Stabilization After Prolonged Downturn

On September 24, Liv-ex, the global marketplace for fine wine, held its online seminar "Webinar on Wine Market Trends 2025." The 45-minute session, led by market experts Sophia Gilmour and Olly Lawson, focused on the main trends shaping the premium wine sector for the remainder of 2025. The discussion provided a detailed analysis of the current state of the fine wine market, which is now in its third consecutive year of decline—the longest downturn in two decades.

The Liv-ex 100 index, a key benchmark for fine wine prices, has dropped 27% from its peak and is now close to pre-pandemic levels. The first half of 2025 was marked by significant challenges. Chief among them was the threat of new U.S. tariffs, which led to a rapid withdrawal of American buyers. This group had grown to represent 35% of traded value in 2024. Their exit destabilized the market, echoing the impact seen when Asian buyers pulled back in 2010-2011.

Another blow came from the disappointing Bordeaux En Primeur 2024 campaign. Despite low yields, many châteaux chose not to lower release prices, citing heavy investments made over the past decade. Collectors, wary after years of declining En Primeur values, largely refused to participate. Even top names like Lafite and Mouton remained unsold for months—an unthinkable scenario just ten years ago. This exposed deep tensions in the supply chain and raised questions about the viability of the En Primeur system itself.

Despite these setbacks, there are early signs that the market may be stabilizing. The pace of price declines has slowed, and certain segments—such as Champagne and Bordeaux 2021 vintages—appear to have bottomed out and are attracting renewed interest from buyers. A crucial development is the return of demand from Asia, especially Hong Kong. After more than six years of subdued activity, Hong Kong merchants have depleted their inventories and are now restocking ahead of the holiday season. This resurgence is driven by lower interest rates, favorable prices, and a positive economic outlook in the region.

Market sentiment indicators have improved notably in recent months. The bid:offer ratio—a key measure comparing buying interest to selling pressure—has risen significantly. The Liv-ex 100’s ratio recently reached 0.7, its highest level since April 2023. While overall forecasts still suggest a slight short-term decline, these metrics indicate that the worst phase of the downturn may be over.

The recovery is not expected to be rapid or dramatic. Instead, experts predict a period of sideways movement or gradual growth as confidence rebuilds. For a sustainable rebound, industry leaders stress the need for better communication across the supply chain and greater price transparency. Strategic investments will also be required to attract younger buyers who are less motivated by prestige alone.

The seminar highlighted several unexpected truths about today’s fine wine market. One is that traditional indicators like price indices can lag behind more predictive measures such as the bid:offer ratio. Historically, changes in this ratio have anticipated price movements by about three months. For example, a sharp drop in late 2021 foreshadowed subsequent declines across major indices.

Another insight is that sharp price corrections can actually benefit long-term market health by quickly resetting valuations to levels that attract new buyers. Regions like Champagne—which saw some of the steepest drops—are now among those showing early signs of recovery.

The COVID-era boom in fine wine was not primarily driven by increased home consumption but rather by low interest rates and wealth creation during that period. When rates rose again at the end of 2021, demand evaporated quickly while producers had already raised prices significantly—up to 30% for Bordeaux and even doubling for some Burgundy wines—alienating potential new entrants.

The Bordeaux En Primeur system itself is under scrutiny after this year’s failed campaign revealed a shift in power dynamics along the supply chain. Merchants are no longer willing to accept unwanted stock just to maintain allocations from top châteaux.

Perhaps most surprising is that recovery momentum is coming from Asia rather than a return of U.S. buyers. Hong Kong’s renewed activity is focused on high-end Burgundy whites and select California Cabernets such as Harlan and Opus One.

Technical analysis shows most Liv-ex indices approaching their 2020 lows—levels that previously attracted enough demand to stabilize prices. Volatility has decreased and transaction volumes around these support points suggest buyers and sellers are finding common ground again. However, Bordeaux faces deeper structural issues; its Bordeaux 500 index has fallen below its 2020 low and is nearing support levels last seen in 2015.

Broader economic factors will also shape recovery prospects. Global wealth creation continues apace with record-high stock markets and an expected massive intergenerational transfer of assets over the next two decades. Lower interest rates typically boost alternative assets like fine wine both as investments and luxury goods.

A key concern remains generational: younger consumers (Gen Z) drink less wine due to economic constraints and different lifestyle choices. The industry must invest in marketing strategies that resonate with this demographic or risk losing future demand.

In summary, while early 2025 was extremely challenging for fine wine markets worldwide, data now points toward stabilization in several key areas—especially where price corrections have been most severe. Sentiment indicators are improving and Asian demand offers a new path forward even without immediate U.S. re-engagement.

Industry analysts caution against expecting a swift bull market rebound; instead they foresee a period of slow but steady growth as trust returns and new buyers enter at more attractive price points. For lasting recovery, structural changes are needed: greater transparency, better communication throughout distribution channels, and targeted efforts to engage younger generations who will define tomorrow’s market landscape.

Sophia Gilmour emphasized during the seminar that “the market has changed.” She called for more openness about pricing and recognition that prestige alone no longer guarantees investment appeal for new buyers.

Despite ongoing challenges—including unresolved questions about Bordeaux’s future—the prevailing mood among experts is one of cautious optimism: with prices already down so far, further significant declines seem unlikely in many cases according to current data trends observed on Liv-ex.

As global demand patterns shift and traditional business models adapt under pressure, fine wine finds itself at a crossroads—one where transparency, adaptability, and generational renewal will determine whether it can emerge stronger from this historic correction cycle.