Liv-ex Research Shows Bid:Offer Ratio Predicts Fine Wine Market Shifts Months in Advance

Liv-ex, the global exchange for fine wine, has released new research highlighting the predictive power of its Bid:Offer ratio, a metric that tracks the balance between buying interest and selling pressure across thousands of wines listed on its platform. According to Liv-ex, this ratio has consistently served as a leading indicator for market shifts, often signaling changes up to two months before they occur.

The fine wine market is known for its complexity. Prices are influenced by factors such as sentiment, scarcity, critics’ scores, and broader economic trends. Information is often fragmented, making it difficult for buyers and sellers to anticipate market movements. Liv-ex’s Bid:Offer ratio aims to address this challenge by providing a data-driven signal based on real trading activity rather than surveys or opinions.

The ratio itself is straightforward: it compares the number of active bids (buyers) to offers (sellers) on the exchange. When the ratio rises, it suggests that demand is building and confidence is returning to the market. When it falls, it indicates that caution is taking hold and supply may be outpacing demand. Over the past decade, Liv-ex data shows that rising Bid:Offer ratios have typically preceded periods of price stability or recovery, while declining ratios have warned of downturns well before prices actually fell.

This pattern was evident ahead of the 2022 market peak. The Bid:Offer ratio dropped sharply months before prices began to decline, signaling weakening demand. In 2025, after reaching historic lows in mid-summer, the ratio started to climb again. Only later did key indices like the Liv-ex 100 begin to show signs of recovery. This sequence suggests that the Bid:Offer ratio can provide early warning signals for those involved in buying, selling, or investing in fine wine.

Alex Chisholm, a data analyst at Liv-ex, explained that the Bid:Offer ratio provides a statistically robust early signal of fine wine market movements. He noted that the ratio explains a significant share of price variability over two-to-five month periods. For merchants, traders, and investment advisors, this information can be crucial for making decisions about pricing, inventory management, and investment timing.

While no single metric can capture all the factors influencing fine wine prices—such as vintage quality or global economic shifts—the Bid:Offer ratio stands out for its ability to reflect real-time market sentiment. It offers transparency in a sector where reliable data has traditionally been scarce.

Liv-ex members have access to this metric daily, allowing them to monitor shifts in demand and supply as they happen. This can help businesses reduce risk by adjusting their positions before major price movements occur or capitalize on opportunities when signs of recovery emerge.

As the fine wine market continues to evolve and become more data-driven, tools like the Bid:Offer ratio are becoming increasingly important for staying ahead of trends. By transforming raw trading data into actionable insight, Liv-ex aims to give its members an edge in navigating a market where timing and confidence are critical.