Treasury Wine Estates Shares Plunge Over 50% in 2025 Amid Global Demand Slump

The year 2025 proved to be challenging and selective for publicly traded wine companies worldwide, according to a recent analysis by Pambianco. The report highlights that a combination of structural and cyclical factors significantly affected the sector’s performance, while the outlook for 2026 remains marked by high uncertainty. The ongoing deterioration of the economic and geopolitical environment continues to influence investor expectations. More than financial results, it is the overall scenario that shapes market sentiment, keeping caution high among investors in listed wine companies.

In 2025, several well-known factors impacted company balance sheets and stock market performance. These included a contraction in global wine consumption, geopolitical tensions that led to the introduction of U.S. tariffs, and inflationary pressures that reduced purchasing power in key markets. Pambianco notes that the sector has gradually lost its appeal to investors. In previous years, the limited number of listed players and expectations of mergers and acquisitions had supported valuations. However, a slowdown in M&A activity and worsening macroeconomic conditions have cooled interest in the sector. While the stock market remains an important tool for supporting long-term growth projects, major Italian wine groups not currently listed show no signs of considering an IPO in the near future.

Even industry giants faced difficulties during 2025. Treasury Wine Estates, an Australian company with brands such as Penfold’s, Daou, 19 Crimes, Blossom Hill, Beringer, and Castello di Gabbiano in Chianti Classico, saw its share price drop by more than half over the year—from 10.78 to 5.24 Australian dollars—reducing its market capitalization to 3.2 billion Australian dollars ($1.95 billion). The group was hit by weak demand for premium wines in both the United States and China. In October, Sam Fischer was appointed as the new CEO, marking a strategic shift with a multi-year cost reduction plan, suspension of dividends, and cancellation of a planned share buyback for 2026. The company also recorded a write-down of U.S. assets worth 988 million Australian dollars and closed the half-year with a net loss of 649 million.

Australian Vintage also experienced negative results with a 20% drop in share value. German distributor Hawesko reported a decline of 23.2%, affected by weak domestic consumption and a decrease in e-commerce compared to pandemic highs.

Champagne houses were not immune to these trends. Laurent-Perrier saw its shares fall by 9.8%, Lanson-Bcc by 8.5%, and Maison Pommery Associé by 8.2%. These declines followed years of strong growth but were penalized by slowing demand for premium sparkling wines.

Italy’s presence among major global wine groups is limited to Italian Wine Brands (IWB), which is listed on Euronext Growth Milan alongside Masi Agricola (not included in Pambianco’s analysis). In 2025, IWB’s share price fell by 3.9%, from €22.27 to €21.40 per share, with a year-end market capitalization of €181 million. Revenues reached €395.9 million, remaining stable despite challenging conditions and some volume growth. Strong markets in the United Kingdom and Canada partially offset declines in the United States, but investor sentiment remains cautious.

Some companies bucked the negative trend in 2025. Naked Wines posted a gain of 59.9%, driven by a turnaround plan launched in spring that included liquidating £40 million in excess inventory and raising profitability targets. Canadian group Andrew Peller saw its shares rise by 33.5%, reaching a market capitalization of €152 million. French group AdVini gained 5.6% thanks to prudent management amid tough conditions for high-end French wines, while German group Schloss Wachenheim posted an increase of 2.6%.

Despite these isolated positive results, most publicly traded wine companies faced significant challenges throughout 2025 due to global economic headwinds and shifting consumer behavior. As uncertainty continues into 2026, both investors and industry leaders remain cautious about future prospects for the sector on international stock markets.