Italian Wine Exports to U.S. Face 9% Drop as Tariff Uncertainty Persists

The recent decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to reject the legitimacy of emergency tariff powers used by former President Donald Trump has not brought relief to the Italian wine industry. Lamberto Frescobaldi, president of the Unione Italiana Vini (UIV), said that despite the ruling, the wine sector cannot celebrate. He warned that there is a strong possibility that tariffs could be reimposed through alternative legal channels. This situation, he noted, increases uncertainty in trade relations between Europe and the United States.

Frescobaldi pointed out that the damages caused to the sector in recent months have been significant. He expressed hope that the current stalemate will be resolved soon to avoid further disruptions in commercial and monetary dynamics. According to UIV’s Observatory, the second half of last year was particularly challenging for Italian wine exports to the U.S., not only because of tariffs but also due to a decline in consumption habits that has been ongoing for several years.

UIV’s projections for exports to the U.S. indicate a notable decrease for Italian wines. The forecast for 2025 shows a drop of 9%, with an estimated contraction of about €177 million compared to the previous year. The second half of 2024 alone is expected to see a reduction of €225 million compared to the same period in 2023.

Paolo Castelletti, UIV’s secretary general, added that tariffs are compounding an already difficult market situation in the U.S., where wine consumption fell by 5% in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of decline. Castelletti said that while UIV agrees with the substance of the Supreme Court’s decision, it could have a boomerang effect by creating more uncertainty and causing a pause in orders as importers wait for clearer regulatory guidance from U.S. authorities.

The United States remains by far the largest market for Italian wines, with a value of €1.93 billion in 2024, accounting for 24% of total Italian wine exports worldwide. This makes wine one of the most exposed sectors of Italian exports to potential U.S. tariffs. The ongoing uncertainty over trade policy is causing concern among producers and exporters who rely heavily on stable access to the American market.