Online Alcohol Sales Drop 1% in 2024 but Set for 3% Annual Growth Through 2029

Ecommerce sales of beverage alcohol experienced a third consecutive year of decline in 2024, but industry analysts expect the channel to return to growth in the coming years. The IWSR’s Ecommerce Strategic Study 2025, which covers more than 85% of global ecommerce value, reports that the value of online alcohol sales fell by 1% in 2024. This drop was mainly due to weaker sales in China and the United States, where overall alcohol consumption was affected by economic uncertainty and lower consumer spending.

Despite these setbacks, ecommerce’s share of total beverage alcohol value remained steady at 3.5% in 2024. IWSR forecasts that this share will hold through 2025 before rising to 3.8% by 2029. The recent stability follows a period of volatility for online alcohol sales. During the Covid-19 pandemic, the channel saw rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% from 2019 to 2021. This was followed by a correction phase, with a CAGR decline of 5% from 2022 to 2023, and then a smaller drop last year.

Looking ahead to the period from 2024 to 2029, IWSR predicts a CAGR value growth of 3% for ecommerce alcohol sales. Guy Wolfe, head of ecommerce insights at IWSR, said that after two years of adjustment following the pandemic boom, online alcohol sales have stabilized and are set for modest growth. Wolfe noted that while online usage dipped again in 2025, it did so less than physical retail channels, showing greater resilience for digital sales. He added that frequency of use remains stable in most markets except China, and that both volume and total basket spend are still higher online than offline.

China, Brazil, and the US are expected to drive more than half of total online alcohol value growth between 2024 and 2029. These countries have more mature ecommerce markets and positive consumer attitudes toward online shopping. Over this period, China is forecasted to see a value CAGR gain of 3%, Brazil is expected to grow by 6%, and the US by 2%. Other markets are also projected to contribute: the UK is set for a CAGR of 1%, Australia for 3%, Mexico for a notable 12%, Canada for 7%, and Colombia for 8%.

Beer is expected to be the main driver of online alcohol sales growth through 2029, with a forecasted value CAGR increase of 6%. Wine is predicted to lose share due to flat performance, while spirits are expected to maintain their share with a value CAGR rise of 2%. Wolfe explained that beer’s current lower penetration in ecommerce, combined with brewer investment and growth in omnichannel and on-demand sectors, will support its expansion.

Within spirits, whisky stands out for its high online conversion rate. Between 15% and 17% of whisky drinkers have purchased it online, making it more prominent in ecommerce than categories like Champagne or still wine. US whiskey is expected to challenge Scotch’s leadership in online spirits sales over the next five years due to strong domestic market growth. US whiskey is forecasted for a CAGR value gain of 3% from 2024 to 2029, compared with Scotch’s projected growth of just 1%. Agave spirits are also expected to grow strongly at a CAGR of 5%, driven largely by demand in the US but increasingly expanding into other markets.

Channel trends show that while marketplaces in China remain the largest sector globally for online alcohol sales, future absolute value growth will come from on-demand services in China and omnichannel platforms in the US between now and 2029. Wolfe said that omnichannel and on-demand services will be key drivers for online channel growth over this period. Marketplaces are evolving due to social commerce trends and competition from Amazon, while direct-to-consumer (D2C) channels face challenges. Grocery retailers’ investments in digital capabilities and consumers’ focus on value are expected to support omnichannel expansion. On-demand services have consolidated recently and are poised for renewed growth based on convenience.

IWSR forecasts indicate that D2C sales by value will remain flat between 2024 and 2029, while online specialists may see slight declines. Growth is expected from omnichannel platforms (with a projected CAGR of 3%), on-demand services (8%), and marketplaces (2%).

Consumer behavior is also changing as more shoppers conduct research before buying alcohol—both online and offline—using digital sources such as reviews and social media. This trend is especially strong among premium shoppers and those buying less common categories like Champagne or whisky. Digital information sources play an important role in brand selection after initial familiarity with products.

Artificial intelligence is beginning to influence how consumers discover and purchase alcoholic beverages online. According to IWSR research, about 16% of global purchasers used AI tools for recommendations during their last online purchase—a figure highest among Gen Z and Millennials as well as shoppers in the US and Brazil. Among those who selected their last alcohol brand while browsing an online retailer’s site, about one-fifth said they were influenced by an AI tool such as a chatbot or virtual sommelier.

The study covered core markets including Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, UK, US; as well as secondary markets like Canada, Colombia, Mexico, Netherlands, Nigeria, and South Africa. The findings suggest that while ecommerce beverage alcohol sales faced challenges in recent years due to economic factors in major markets like China and the US, the channel remains resilient with signs pointing toward renewed growth driven by established markets, beer sales expansion, omnichannel strategies, on-demand convenience offerings and increased use of digital tools including AI for shopper engagement.