French Wine Output Forecasts Cut After Heatwave and Vineyard Losses

French wine production forecasts for 2025 have been revised downward by the country’s Ministry of Agriculture, following updated data from the Service de la statistique et de la prospective (SSP). The latest estimate now points to a total output of 37.4 million hectoliters, a reduction of between 3 and 5 million hectoliters compared to the previous forecast issued on August 8, which ranged from 40 to 42.5 million hectoliters. This adjustment represents a drop of between 7% and 12% in just one month.

The revision comes after an intense heatwave in August, which significantly affected vineyards across several regions. According to the SSP, high temperatures and drought conditions led to notable declines in potential yields, particularly in Charente, where production is expected to be down by 10% compared to the 2020-2024 average. In Burgundy and Beaujolais, production has remained stable, while Languedoc-Roussillon is projected to see a decrease of about 5%. The statistics office also noted that the reduction in vineyard area has played a role in the lower volumes. More than 20,000 hectares have been uprooted since last year’s harvest, especially in Bordeaux, the South-West, and Languedoc-Roussillon.

The French wine sector has expressed frustration with the repeated inaccuracies in official harvest estimates. Similar overestimations and underestimations have occurred in each of the past four years. The current political uncertainty following the fall of the Bayrou government has added to concerns within the industry about how much attention will be given to their needs during this period of crisis.

Despite the lower quantity, there is some optimism regarding quality. Early reports suggest that the grapes harvested this year meet all criteria for what are considered “good vintages,” offering some consolation to producers facing reduced yields.

Meanwhile, Italy is preparing for its own harvest forecast presentation. The Ministry of Agriculture in Rome will host an event tomorrow where Assoenologi, Unione Italiana Vini (UIV), and Ismea will present their estimates for the 2025 vintage. Initial figures released by Coldiretti predict Italian wine production at around 45 million hectoliters. The event will feature presentations from Sergio Marchi, director general of Ismea; Matteo Zoppas, president of Agenzia Ice; Fabio Del Bravo from Ismea; Paolo Brogioni from Assoenologi; and Ignacio Sánchez Recarte from CEEV, who will provide a broader European perspective. A panel discussion titled “A Potential to Manage” will follow, with Riccardo Cotarella and Lamberto Frescobaldi participating. The session will conclude with remarks from Agriculture Minister Francesco Lollobrigida.

The developments in France highlight ongoing challenges for European wine producers as they navigate climate volatility and shifting market conditions. The coming weeks will be crucial as both France and Italy finalize their harvests and assess the impact on their respective wine industries.