Three Years of Smaller Harvests Push Bulk Wine Market to Fragile Equilibrium

The latest Ciatti Global Market Report shows that the global bulk wine and grape markets are currently in a fragile state of equilibrium. This balance is the result of several years of shorter harvests and a growing sensitivity to price among buyers. The report, which reviews the market conditions of 2025 and looks ahead to 2026, highlights that this equilibrium could be disrupted by the upcoming Southern Hemisphere harvests. These harvests are expected soon and could shift the current supply-demand dynamics, especially for entry-level wines.

In 2025, wine consumption in Europe and North America did not stabilize as some in the industry had hoped. The report notes that the economic “vibecession” of 2024—a period marked by stable economic indicators but negative consumer sentiment—continued into 2025. Political instability around the world added to this uncertainty. Many consumers have seen their earnings fail to keep up with inflation, particularly after the pandemic-driven spike from 2021 to 2023 and more recent local inflationary pressures. As a result, shoppers have become more selective, reducing their grocery lists to essentials and treating wine as a discretionary purchase rather than a staple.

The report also points out that wine faces stiff competition from other alcoholic beverages, especially among younger consumers whose spending power has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels. In countries where wine is priced as an everyday item, such as Spain and South Africa, consumption has remained more stable. However, in markets where wine is considered a luxury or discretionary item, sales have been more volatile.

For buyers looking to meet retail demand for affordable wines and innovative products, the report identifies several opportunities in 2026. It suggests that competitively priced generic wines are closest to achieving a balance between supply and demand in many markets. This situation has been driven by three consecutive years of smaller harvests and increased focus on lower-priced wines due to heightened price sensitivity among bulk-wine buyers.

Suppliers are advised to pay close attention to these trends when deciding where to allocate their wines. The report emphasizes that the imminent Southern Hemisphere harvests will play a key role in determining whether the current market balance holds or is disrupted. If these harvests are larger than expected, they could increase supply and put downward pressure on prices, while smaller harvests could tighten the market further.

Ciatti’s report also notes that just-in-time operating models have become more common in recent years, allowing buyers and sellers to respond quickly to changing market conditions. The company believes it is well positioned to help clients navigate these shifts in 2026.

As the industry enters a new year, both buyers and suppliers are watching closely to see how global economic trends, consumer behavior, and upcoming harvests will shape the bulk wine and grape markets. The report concludes with a message of optimism for those working in the sector, wishing them success in navigating what is expected to be another year of change and opportunity.