U.S. Wine Sales Fall Below 300 Million Cases for First Time in 20 Years, Down 5% in 2025

The U.S. wine market experienced a significant decline in 2025, with total volume dropping by 5% to an estimated 298 million 9-liter cases, according to new data from Impact Databank. This marks the fifth consecutive year of falling wine sales in the country and is the first time in two decades that annual volume has slipped below the 300-million-case mark. The value of the wine market also decreased, though at a slightly slower rate, falling by an estimated 4% over the same period.

Industry analysts point to several factors behind the downturn. Changing consumer preferences, increased competition from other alcoholic beverages, and economic pressures have all contributed to the ongoing decline. Notably, for the first time since 1979, wine’s total volume in the U.S. fell below that of spirits. The spirits category saw modest growth of 1% last year, reaching 306 million cases, largely driven by the continued popularity of canned cocktails and other ready-to-drink (RTD) products. Without these RTDs, spirits would have also posted negative growth for four consecutive years.

Wine-based cocktails provided some relief for the wine sector, growing by an estimated 16% to reach 15.5 million cases in 2025. The Beatbox brand played a major role in this segment’s expansion, accounting for about half of all wine-based cocktail sales after growing 30% to 7.5 million cases last year. Anheuser-Busch’s recent acquisition of an 85% stake in Beatbox for up to $490 million highlights the growing interest in this niche.

Other bright spots include non-alcoholic wines and sake or plum wines, both of which posted strong double-digit growth rates. However, these categories remain small, each representing less than 1% of the overall U.S. wine market.

Among the top ten wine brands sold in retail channels across the country, only two showed positive growth during the 52 weeks ending December 27, according to NielsenIQ data. Josh Cellars from Deutsch Family Wine & Spirits saw a slight increase of 0.8%, while La Marca Prosecco from Gallo posted a more robust gain of 4.1%. Both brands stand out as exceptions in a market where most leading labels experienced declines.

Industry leaders note that while overall demand is down, certain price segments are performing better than others. Kevin Roberts, chief commercial officer at Breakthru Beverage Group, said that wines priced between $15 and $19.99 and those in the $25 to $50 range continue to attract steady consumer interest. Marc Sachs, CEO of RNDC, echoed this sentiment, noting that higher-end still and sparkling wines are faring better than lower-priced options.

Zach Poelma, senior vice president of commercial intelligence at Southern Glazer’s Wine & Spirits, observed that premiumization trends have benefited wine more than spirits over the past year. He added that increased promotional activity at retail could help boost wine volumes in 2026.

Despite these pockets of resilience, most major brands saw declines last year. Gallo’s Barefoot remained the top-selling brand by retail value but dropped nearly 5%. Other large brands such as Sutter Home, Bota Box, Black Box, Franzia, Woodbridge and Kendall-Jackson all posted declines ranging from about 2% to over 9%. Stella Rosa suffered one of the steepest drops among leading brands with an 18% decrease.

The current environment presents challenges for producers and distributors alike as they adapt to shifting consumer tastes and increased competition from spirits and RTDs. While some premium segments and innovative products are showing growth, overall market conditions remain difficult for traditional table wines and value-oriented brands.

As industry stakeholders look ahead to 2026, many are watching closely to see if targeted promotions and continued innovation can help stabilize or reverse recent declines in U.S. wine consumption.