Italian Wine Production Forecast Drops as 2025 Grape Harvest Yields Fall Short

The 2025 grape harvest in Italy is showing lower yields than previously estimated, according to new figures released by Legacoop Agroalimentare. The organization now forecasts a total production of about 44 million hectoliters of wine, down from earlier predictions made by other industry groups such as Unione Italiana Vini, Assoenologi, and Ismea, which had estimated 47.4 million hectoliters. Coldiretti’s late July forecast was also higher, at 45 million hectoliters.

Cristian Maretti, president of Legacoop Agroalimentare, explained that the harvest is now more than 75 percent complete across the country. He noted that while the quantity is lower than initial expectations, the quality of the grapes is considered excellent. Maretti attributed this to moderate nighttime temperatures during the growing season, which helped maintain a good balance between alcohol content and acidity in the grapes.

The reduction in volume is partly due to weather events that affected different regions. Drought in some southern areas and rain during flowering in parts of the north both contributed to lower yields. Regions that saw particularly high production in 2024 have experienced decreases of between 10 and 20 percent this year. This drop is seen as helping to rebalance supply and demand in the Italian wine market, which has been struggling with oversupply and sluggish sales. As of July 31, there were still nearly 40 million hectoliters of unsold wine in storage across Italy.

Maretti said that if similar reductions are confirmed in France and Spain, the three largest wine-producing countries could see a better balance between supply and demand. He argued that this scenario would discourage speculative practices aimed at driving prices down unfairly and would help protect the value of the Italian wine sector.

He also cautioned against calls for broad production cuts across all regions, saying that each segment of the market has its own characteristics and should be analyzed individually. Some Italian wine regions continue to absorb and sell wines from other areas that have invested less in marketing and organization over recent years.

Legacoop Agroalimentare supports a temporary halt to the annual one percent increase in Italian vineyard area but stresses that promotion remains crucial for the sector’s future. Maretti pointed out that despite global uncertainties caused by wars and tariffs, Italy’s cooperative wineries have acted cautiously to maintain their market positions. Many have accepted lower profit margins and absorbed tariff costs themselves to avoid losing market share abroad.

Maretti concluded by emphasizing the resilience of Italian vineyards and called for targeted promotional efforts based on real production data. He said these efforts should focus on spreading wine culture internationally and supporting continued improvement in quality and market positioning for Italian wines.