Artificial Intelligence Projected to Drive Major Growth in Global Trade by 2040

A new report from the World Trade Organization (WTO) shows that artificial intelligence (AI) could boost global trade in goods and services by nearly 40 percent by 2040, provided the right policies are in place. The 2025 edition of the World Trade Report, released this week in Geneva, highlights how AI-driven productivity gains and lower trade costs could reshape cross-border commerce over the next two decades.

The WTO’s flagship publication projects that, depending on how quickly low- and middle-income economies catch up with high-income countries in digital infrastructure and AI adoption, global trade could rise between 34 and 37 percent by 2040. In the same period, global GDP could increase by 12 to 13 percent under different scenarios. The report emphasizes that these gains depend on closing the digital divide, investing in workforce skills, and maintaining open and predictable trade environments.

According to the report, AI can help economies access key enabling goods such as raw materials, semiconductors, and intermediate inputs. In 2023, global trade in these AI-enabling goods reached $2.3 trillion. However, access remains uneven. Some low-income countries face consolidated tariffs as high as 45 percent on these products, limiting their ability to participate in the digital economy.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the WTO, wrote in the report’s foreword that “AI has enormous potential to reduce trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remain highly unequal.” She called for a mix of trade, investment, and complementary policies to ensure that AI-driven growth benefits all economies.

The report outlines a scenario where low- and middle-income economies halve their digital infrastructure gap with high-income countries and adopt AI more widely. In this case, incomes in these economies could rise by 15 percent and 14 percent respectively by 2040. But the report also warns that without targeted investments in education and training, inequality within countries could widen as some workers are left behind by technological change.

Trade policy is another area of concern. The number of quantitative restrictions on AI-related goods has grown from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, mainly driven by high- and upper-middle-income economies. The WTO notes that open and predictable trade policies are essential for spreading the benefits of AI more broadly.

The organization sees itself playing a key role in this process. The WTO provides a forum for its members to discuss trade measures related to AI. So far, 80 specific trade concerns have been raised at the WTO focusing on AI issues. There have also been dedicated discussions about inclusive trade in the context of the Work Programme on Electronic Commerce.

The report suggests that broader participation in agreements like the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement and updated commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services could make AI more accessible and affordable worldwide.

The findings come at a time when governments are grappling with how to regulate emerging technologies while ensuring economic growth is shared widely. The WTO’s analysis underscores both the opportunities and challenges ahead as AI becomes an increasingly important driver of global commerce.