Top 10 Wine Countries to Produce 195 Million Hectoliters for 2025

Italy is set to reclaim its position as the world’s leading wine producer in 2025, according to official estimates released this week by Assoenologi, ISMEA, and the Unione Italiana Vini (UIV). The country expects a harvest of 47.4 million hectoliters, an 8% increase over last year’s campaign. This figure puts Italy ahead of France, which is forecast to produce 37.4 million hectoliters, and Spain, with an estimated 36 million. The Italian Ministry of Agriculture and regional authorities contributed to the report, which highlights both the volume and quality of this year’s crop.

The favorable outcome in Italy is attributed to a combination of precise vineyard management and beneficial weather conditions. A wet winter provided good water reserves, while a mild spring and an irregular but manageable summer allowed for an early start to the harvest in several regions. In southern Italy, spring rainfall helped vineyards withstand heatwaves in June and August. However, growth was not uniform across the country. Southern regions saw a 19% increase in production, led by Puglia (up 17%) and Sicily (up 20%). The northwest grew by 8%, with Lombardy recovering by 15%, though still below its five-year average. The northeast posted a modest 3% rise, with Friuli-Venezia Giulia up 10% and Trentino-Alto Adige up 9%. Central Italy experienced a 3% decline due mainly to a drop in Tuscany after last year’s abundant harvest.

Veneto remains Italy’s top producing region with nearly 12 million hectoliters—about a quarter of the national total—followed by Puglia and Emilia-Romagna. Sicily and Abruzzo round out the top five, overtaking Piemonte and Tuscany this year.

In France, the Ministry of Agriculture announced that wine production is expected to reach 37.4 million hectoliters in 2025, a 3% increase from last year’s weather-affected harvest. Despite this improvement, output remains 13% below the five-year average. The shortfall is mainly due to high temperatures and drought in August, which reduced juice content in grapes and accelerated ripening across several key regions. These conditions forced an earlier harvest and limited yields in areas such as Charentes, Burgundy, Beaujolais, and Languedoc-Roussillon.

France has also seen a reduction in vineyard area, with more than 20,000 hectares uprooted since last year in Bordeaux, the Southwest, and Languedoc-Roussillon. This is part of government-supported efforts to address oversupply amid declining domestic wine consumption. Some producers have raised concerns that these policies could make southern regions more vulnerable to wildfires.

Champagne will begin harvesting earlier than usual this September. Despite heat stress and poor flowering conditions, production there is expected to be up 12% from last year but still about 10% below the five-year average. Bordeaux started picking grapes in mid-August due to heatwaves; yields are similar to last year but remain well below recent averages. Beaujolais faces its smallest crop since 2012. Languedoc and the Southwest will also see lower volumes, while the Loire Valley anticipates some recovery compared to last year.

Spain’s harvest is projected at around 36 million hectoliters for wine alone, according to Cooperativas Agroalimentarias de España. Including musts (unfermented grape juice), total production could reach up to 38 million hectoliters—a slight improvement over the previous two years but still far from the decade-long average of 43 million. Persistent heatwaves have forced many Spanish growers to start picking earlier than planned to avoid losses from overripe fruit. In Catalonia and other regions, accelerated harvesting has become necessary due to extreme weather.

Spain continues to see a gradual reduction in vineyard area as well. Over recent decades, total acreage has dropped from more than 1.3 million hectares to under 900,000 today—a result of voluntary removals supported by public aid programs and stricter yield limits both in vineyards and wineries.

Elsewhere among major producers, the global wine map continues to shift under the influence of climate change and evolving consumption patterns. In the Southern Hemisphere, harvests are already complete and provide clear data on production volumes.

According to the National Institute of Viticulture (INV), Argentina closed its season with 1.036 billion liters (10.37 million hectoliters), maintaining stability after several years of fluctuation thanks to generally healthy grapes and moderate yields. Australia reported a rebound with 1.57 million tons of grapes harvested estimated by Wine Australia, translating to about 11 million hectoliters—an 11% increase over last year but still below historical norms.

The final report from the Agricultural and Livestock Service (SAG) confirms that Chile experienced another decline, producing just 838.6 million liters (8.39 million hectoliters), down nearly 10% from last year and marking its lowest output in a decade due to poor yields and challenging weather conditions. The latest industry estimate for the 2025 harvest (SAWIS) puts South Africa estimated its crop at 1.244 million tons of grapes or 8.89 million hectoliters, with a dry and balanced growing season favoring quality over quantity as part of a broader strategy to improve value rather than volume.

In the Northern Hemisphere, most figures remain projections as harvests are still underway or pending final tallies. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates a potential output of 20.21 million hectoliters from 3.12 million short tons of wine grapes. However, industry reports suggest that actual crush may not exceed 2.5 million tons due to high inventory levels, which could reduce final production numbers.

Germany's statistics office Destatis forecasts an early harvest yielding about 9.3 million hectoliters with promising quality indicators, according to the German Wine Institute (DWI), though wineries face pressure from low prices and full storage tanks—a situation prompting consideration of crisis distillation measures to manage oversupply.

The Instituto da Vinha e do Vinho (IVV) forecasts that Portugal anticipates a sharper drop in production: estimates point to just 6.2 million hectoliters for 2025, down 11% from last year and 12% below the five-year average. Heavy rains and a severe mildew outbreak have particularly affected key regions such as Douro, Lisbon, and Alentejo.

The international outlook for wine in 2025 reveals clear trends: while Southern Hemisphere countries like Australia are recovering some lost ground and South Africa is focusing on premiumization, Chile faces contraction and Argentina remains steady after past volatility. In the Northern Hemisphere, uncertainty persists due to weather risks and structural pressures from excess supply.

Climate change stands out as the dominant factor shaping these outcomes—creating opportunities for higher quality in some areas while causing significant losses elsewhere. At the same time, the global wine industry is adjusting by reducing less profitable production segments and investing more in higher-value wines as consumer preferences shift toward quality and origin.

Based on available data for the ten largest wine-producing countries in 2025, Italy leads with an estimated 47.4 million hectoliters, followed by France at 37.4 million and Spain at 36 million. The United States is projected at 20.2 million hectoliters; Germany at 9.3; Argentina at 10.4; Australia at 11; Chile at 8.4; South Africa at 8.9; and Portugal at 6.2 million hectoliters. Together these countries account for approximately 195 million hectoliters—representing the vast majority of global wine production expected this year, marking a slight increase from the 193 million (+0.9%) recorded in 2024 and representing the vast majority of the world's wine production this year.

The data highlight how sustainability in the sector now depends less on sheer volume than on managing inventories effectively, building resilience against climate volatility, and adapting business models to meet changing market demands focused increasingly on quality over quantity.