US non-alcoholic beverage market to hit $5 billion by 2028

The non-alcoholic beverage market in the United States continues to expand and is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 18% in volume between 2024 and 2028, according to the latest data from IWSR. Although this projection indicates a slightly slower pace of growth than in previous years, the category will continue to gain relevance within the beverage sector. By 2028, the non-alcoholic beverage market is estimated to reach a value of nearly $5 billion.

The non-alcoholic beer segment is the main driver of volume growth, thanks to the maturity of the market and investment in new brands. In addition, non-alcoholic ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages have experienced a significant increase, achieving their highest levels to date. In general, non-alcoholic beverage categories are outpacing their alcoholic counterparts in growth, especially in less developed segments such as non-alcoholic RTDs and alcohol-adjacent beverages, which will record annual growth of more than 20% in volume between 2024 and 2028. Non-alcoholic spirits will also continue to rise, with a forecast of 18% annual growth, driven by the launch of new products and increased consumer awareness. In the case of non-alcoholic wine, its expansion will be supported by an already established consumer base, reflecting its greater maturity in the market. Non-alcoholic beer, meanwhile, will maintain 17% annual growth through 2028.

The premium and above segment has been the main driver of growth in established categories such as beer, wine and non-alcoholic spirits. In particular, non-alcoholic wine has shown remarkable growth, with the consolidation of value brands and the entry of new proposals in the premium segment. As for non-alcoholic spirits, premium products have the largest market share within their category, with the exception of RTDs, which are mainly in the standard range.

Millennials represent the largest consumer group of non-alcoholic beverages by age cohort and are the most likely to try different subcategories within the sector. The Gen Z generation of legal drinking age tends to consume these products occasionally, while baby boomers who opt for non-alcoholic beverages tend to abstain from alcohol altogether more than other groups. The frequency of consumption of these beverages has increased due to the arrival of new consumers and younger buyers. The main reasons driving the choice of non-alcoholic beverages remain stable, with reduced alcohol consumption and health as the predominant reasons.

Despite market growth, certain obstacles remain. Product availability, price and taste continue to be limitations to the sector's expansion. In particular, baby boomers expect lower prices, which conflicts with the high production costs of many of these beverages. Innovation continues to play a key role in the evolution of the market, with efforts to replicate the alcohol experience beyond taste. Companies such as AF, GABA Labs and Sentia are developing botanical and synthetic compounds to mimic the effects of alcohol without causing hangovers. In addition, the participation of celebrities who promote sobriety is contributing to greater social acceptance of these beverages. Figures such as Tom Holland and the Delevingne sisters have driven investment and interest in this emerging segment.