Early estimates show drought cut Abruzzo wine production by more than 40% in 2026

Prolonged drought is sharply reducing the first wine production of the 2026 harvest in Abruzzo, and early market prices are moving in the opposite direction from supply, a combination that growers say is putting farm income at risk.

In an interview published by AbruzzoWeb on Aug. 30, Camillo Zulli, winemaker and director of Bio Cantina Sociale Orsogna, said the earliest harvests in Abruzzo and other parts of central and southern Italy are showing vineyard yield losses of 25% to 40% for early varieties, mainly Chardonnay and Pinot Grigio. After additional losses during vinification, he said, the drop in liquid product often exceeds 40%.

Zulli said the area has gone more than 100 days without rain and that the long dry spell, combined with high temperatures, has put vines under severe stress. He said the decline is being seen first in early varieties, but that later grapes, which had not yet been harvested when he spoke, were also unlikely to escape damage because no rain was in sight and temperatures were expected to reach 40°C, or about 104°F.

The warning comes from one of the region’s best known cooperatives, but it is still an early and provisional estimate rather than an official forecast for all of Abruzzo. No absolute volume loss has yet been calculated for the 2026 harvest because late varieties remain on the vine and the available data are based on field performance and first vinification results rather than a completed regional balance sheet.

Even so, the figures point to another difficult year for a wine region that has already absorbed a string of poor harvests. Zulli told AbruzzoWeb that Abruzzo producers were down 80% from average production in 2023 because of downy mildew, 40% below average in 2024 because of drought, and 10% above average in 2025, the only favorable year in the past four. On that basis, he said growers have effectively lost more than one-third of a normal harvest across the four-year period while production costs have continued to rise.

Abruzzo is one of Italy’s main wine-producing regions, with more than 14,000 businesses in the sector. Regional wine output in 2025 reached nearly 2.3 million hectoliters, according to figures cited in the AbruzzoWeb report, and the supply chain generated about €255 million in exports. A weaker 2026 harvest would therefore affect not only growers but also wineries, bottlers, labor demand, and trade flows across the region.

What is adding to concern this year is the gap between availability and price. Zulli said initial commercial offers for must and bulk wine from the new harvest, aimed at Italian and foreign bottlers, are running 15% to 20% below 2025 levels. That means growers are facing lower volumes and weaker prices at the same time, a pattern that directly squeezes revenue.

Under normal market logic, lower supply would tend to support prices. Zulli said that is not happening in the first phase of the 2026 harvest. He described the early offers as speculative and said parts of the supply chain are trying to keep wine values low in order to preserve competitive retail bottle prices, shifting pressure back onto producers. He pointed to local protected-origin wines sold in large retail chains for less than €2 a bottle, with some prices as low as €1.30 or €1.40, levels he said do not cover production costs and damage the image of the denomination.

His comments reflect a broader debate in Italian agriculture over how climate shocks are being absorbed along the food chain. In wine, the problem is especially sensitive because vineyards are long-term investments and many producers cannot quickly switch crops or reduce fixed costs. Repeated years of low yields can weaken small family operations, especially in areas where vineyards also support local employment and land management.

Zulli said the quality outlook for the grapes that have been harvested so far remains generally good despite the drought. He said the fruit is healthy and still has strong quality potential, but that timing is critical, especially for white grapes and for red grapes intended for rosé wines. In very hot and dry seasons, growers often face a narrower picking window as sugar levels rise quickly and water stress changes the balance of the fruit.

The interview also touched on biodynamic viticulture, which Bio Cantina Sociale Orsogna has promoted for years. Zulli said lower crop loads and soils enriched with organic matter can improve water retention and help vines tolerate dry conditions better than more intensive systems. At the same time, he said even biodynamic vineyards are suffering under extreme weather and cannot avoid the impact of prolonged drought.

That point matters in Abruzzo because the issue is no longer a single bad season but the accumulation of climate-related losses over several years. Repeated disease pressure, heat, and lack of rainfall can push growers to reconsider whether vineyards remain economically viable, especially when the market does not reward scarcity with stronger prices. Industry concerns in the region now include the possibility of vineyard abandonment by smaller producers and a further concentration of production in fewer, larger hands if weather stress persists and margins keep shrinking.

For now, the picture remains incomplete because the late-ripening varieties have not yet been picked. Their performance will help determine whether the current losses remain concentrated in early grapes or spread across the wider harvest. But the first results from the cellar suggest that the damage from drought is not limited to fewer grapes in the vineyard. It is also reducing the amount of wine that can be obtained from the fruit that does arrive, turning a difficult growing season into a direct threat to producer income just as the 2026 harvest begins.